Monday, November 3, 2008

Thoughts on the Final Day

OK, I know I lied and didn't come back with a post last night. But here I am with a quick little posting before I head off to TNH for the evening. Here's my game plan for next 48 hours or so: I've got this post, then probably a post when I get back from classes tomorrow around 4, and then I'll post at times that I feel appropriate throughout the evening. I'm not sure if I'll have time to post since I figure I'll be flying around my apartment for upwards of 12 hours, watching multiple TVs, refreshing web pages, and taking and making lots of phone calls. It's going to be sick night, one that I've been waiting a long, long time for.

I've finalized my electoral map, and you can see it here. I think Obama will pull out wins in Ohio and Florida, but I've still got McCain taking Indiana, North Carolina, and the Great Plains states. He won't win NC by more that a 52-48 margain. The only state I really have no idea about is Missouri. I'm throwing it to McCain solely because Obama hasn't been able to carry any significant momentum there in recent weeks. It would not shock me a great deal if either MO or NC went Obama's way. Either way, my map doesn't give McCain much of a shot. Chris Cillizza's final map is the same as mine except that he has McCain winning Ohio and Obama taking Nebraska's 2nd Congressional Disctrict.

Indiana is definitely in play as well. Typically, the first polls to close on Election Day in the U.S. are in Indiana and Kentucky. If you're watching the networks tomorrow night and Indiana gets called for Obama around 8 p.m., it's going to be a tough night for McCain and Republicans all across the board.

Speaking of that, I'll also give you a very brief synopsis on where each of the contested Senatorial races stand heading into this final day of campaigning.

Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico: These are all going to be safe, easy wins for the Democrats tomorrow. All Mark Warner had to do was announce he was running in VA and he would win. The Udall Cousins, Mark and Tom, are also poised to glide to easy victories tomorrow.

Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon: These next three are a little tougher to gauge, but I feel confident the Democrats will win all three. Ted Stevens wrote his own epitaph by being convicted on seven felonies. John Sununu has never led in any polls against Jeanne Shaheen, and Gordon Smith doesn't have much of a chance in Blue Oregon against Jeff Merkely.

North Carolina: Kay Hagen will unseat Liddy Dole, but it should be close. Dole's horrendous decision to go after Hagen's religiosity has backfired in an unbelievable manner.

Minnesota: Flip a coin on this one. Norm Coleman has taken some hits in recent days, Al Franken looks strong, and independent Dean Barkley could split the vote either way. I'm really excited to see how this goes down tomorrow.

Georgia: Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin are locked up in a massive tete-a-tete that should come down to the wire. If neither candidate gets to 50 percent, there'll be a run-off in December to decide the winner. I have a feeling that will happen. If this is the potential 60th seat for the Democrats, and it comes down to this It'll be awesome.

Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi: Likely all to stay with the incumbents. Although I'd love to see McConnell get picked off in Kentucky just to stick it to him.

With that I have to go. What a year it's been. I can't believe it's almost over.

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