My Electoral Map

Sorry for the infrequent posts, but between four classes and trying to run the sports section of a college newspaper I haven't had much time to indulge in writing about politics. There have been so many things in recent weeks that I wish I had the opportunity to write about, including the incredible Palin bounce, the financial meltdown, and the resurgence of the Obama campaign last week amongst a cavalcade of McCain blunders. I promise more from here until the election, but posts will likely be abbreviated. I will definitely have something this weekend following Friday night's first presidential debate.

Between now and Election Day I'll also try to update my electoral college map. The Fix has been running a contest on this, you can fill out your own too. As I have been predicting for a while, I believe the popular vote will be razor thin (no more than four points) but I see the electoral college will be a blowout for Obama. I'm holding out hope Obama can pull out Ohio, Virginia, the important states out west, and our beautiful Granite State. Take a look, and see if you agree or disagree, and make your own.

Check out my map here. Later.

The Stretch Run

The conventions are over. The debates are right around the corner. And that magical day, November 4, the day that our nation will be forever changed, is in sight.

The stretch run of the 2008 presidential campaign is here.

Thursday night John McCain capped a listless GOP Convention with a similarly listless speech and catapulted us into this next, final phase of the election cycle. This came one day after Sarah Palin delivered one of the nastiest, meanest, most divisive political speeches in modern history. I was shocked by the positive public and media reaction to such a horrible speech. Maybe the media was trying to make up for several days of swarming, shark-like coverage of Palin and her family (I'll get to more of this in a bit), but a good speech was not what I saw on Wednesday night.

What I saw was a commitment to the politics that Barack Obama and Joe Biden have essentially sworn off; a politics of personal attacks that accomplish nothing in the long run. Palin's jab that being a mayor is kind of like being a community organizer except that you have "actual responsibilities" was one of the lowest blows of the entire campaign. The junkyard-dog mentality of the McCain campaign is now seemingly centered around the things Palin will say, and it's obvious she'll say anything to make people believe Obama is Satan incarnate.

It's nice to see the Republican Party that we all know and love come through at this convention.

The Republicans, per Mark Halperin, are going to try and paint Obama as an extreme liberal and somehow use his experience as a community organizer to belittle his overall credentials. Somehow I don't see this working. But it was during these two months that Republicans in 1988 turned Michael Dukakis into an aloof elitiest and in 2004 turned John Kerry into a windsurfing, French-looking weakling, while the Democrats made Bush 41 into an out-of-touch old fart in 1992 themselves. Considering the momentum Obama has shown throughout this election season, and his strong swing state numbers (check out Pollster and click on any state to see the most recent polling information), this may be much harder to do this time. Obama has shown extreme willingness to stand up in the face of these attacks, and that certainly separates him from the losers that have come before.

We can look forward to the debates, the warring surrogates, and the kissing of babies in Ohio, Colorado and New Hampshire. We can look forward to the candidates braving the cold in Michigan and avoiding the sun in New Mexico. We can look forward to outrageous political ads and how state and local races might affect the national election. We can look forward to two intense months of campaigning where every word spoken and every move made by John Sidney McCain III and Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. will have an eye towards the magic number (270) and the magic dates (the November 4 election, and the January 20 inauguration).

The greatest election of our lifetimes is headed to the stretch run. Don't blink until Election Day, you might miss something important.

Barack's Speech and the Palin Shocker

Within the course of just about 15 hours, two incredible events occurred proving the possibilities of the American experience. Last night, a black man accepted the nomination of a major political party and delivered an address with words that will live much longer than any of us. Today, a woman was named the vice presidential choice of the other major political party for the first time in its long history.

As you might imagine, I have strongly different feelings about the particulars of both events. But as someone who loves this country deeply, I can't help but feel privileged to be cognizant of the happenings of the 2008 United States presidential election. This has been the most spellbinding, compelling, and important election season of my lifetime, and these seminal events have set up a 67-day run to November 4 none of us will ever forget.

First, Barack's speech. 38 million Americans saw the greatest moment of Obama's campaign, and one of the greatest moments in American history by extension. While I didn't get a chance to watch and hear the entire thing (the speech was on in the Pub last night but Brotherhood of Groove was far too loud and far too awesome to be drowned out by even Obama), I caught the last 10 minutes or so and then watched highlights of most of the important parts. Obama was poised, composed, clear, concise, and unabashedly tough in the biggest moment of his life. It's almost like we can't expect anything less from Obama when he steps to the microphone. Some have tried to knock Obama for being a great speaker. However, Obama's ability to continually rise to the occasion on the national stage proves the backbone and mettle possessed inside this man's heart.

Obama called on Americans to take responsibility for improving their own welfare in many aspects, a Kennedy-esque message that Democrats seem to have forgotten in recent years. He was very tough on John McCain, essentially calling him "W: Part II," claiming that he "doesn't get" regular Americans and their concerns, and in his most personal attack yet on McCain, called into question his temperament to be Commander in Chief.

As the Obama camp tried to convey in the build-up to this speech in front of almost 85,000 at Mile High, it wasn't a rhetorically beautiful speech meant to reinforce all the things Obama has already stated. This was a new direction for the Illinois Senator, one meant to go right after McCain on his own turf, and call his vast Democratic support base to arms in the battle of change against the status quo. It makes me wonder if spending time with Joe Biden has awakened this bulldog mentality in Obama. If that's the case, and the Democrats are finally ready to grow a pair and show that Republicans are the exact opposite of what America needs to go forward, I feel like my party will be tough to beat nationwide.

The Democratic Convention in Denver was a smashing success overall. I had tears in my eyes Wednesday, following the official vote by acclimation of Barack Obama to be Democratic nominee, when John Lewis told David Gregory that all his 1960s civil rights work had finally paid off. Later, Bill Clinton soothed the party and the nation by saying that his own experience as president proved to him that Obama is ready for the job. And Joe Biden capped the night wonderfully with his typical tough, humorous self and the surprise appearance by Obama brought the house down. After being somewhat underwhelmed by the first two days of the convention, I finished watching the coverage Wednesday night and felt like both my party and I were ready to go and ready to win.

Last night proved that great things can still happen in America. Today, we saw the ascension of another unlikely person to a presidential ticket. At 10:45 this morning I turned on my TV expecting to learn that Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, or Joe Lieberman had become the vice-presidential nominee for John McCain. Instead, by jaw hit the floor to learn that 44-year-old Sarah Palin, just one and one half years into her first term as Alaska's governor, would become the most improbable VP pick in decades.

I have to hand it to McCain and the Republicans. Had the pick been one of the three men I mentioned above, I can't help but feel the media would have talked about it for a few minutes, covered the introduction speech today in Dayton, and then gotten back to covering Obama's speech. However, the Palin stunner has really wiped Obama's speech off the coverage and is stoking people's interest heading into the Republican Convention in St. Paul next week.

I'd heard Palin's name mentioned really only in passing when it came to the Veepstakes. Her youth, inexperience, low national profile and the recent birth of her fifth child seemed to take her out of the running. But McCain saw an opportunity to rock the political world with an out-of-the-box choice, and Palin provided that without shaking most of his policy points.

Palin, who only two years ago was the mayor of a town roughly the size of Wolfeboro, NH, is suddenly thrust on the national stage with not very much time to go before the actual election. She is both fiscally and socially conservative, which satisfies the base of the party and certainly makes many Bush Republicans happy. Her brief time as Alaska's governor gives her the most executive experience of anyone on either major party ticket. She appears, from the brief things I've seen of her, that she has a terrific, vivacious personality that should engage all of us. Plus, even though she's pumped out five kids, she's still kinda hot. Take a look at the Fix and tell me she doesn't look EXACTLY like Tina Fey in her picture there.

But don't get me wrong, this pick for McCain qualifies as a stretch in just about every other area. She has ZERO foreign policy and national security credentials when those seem to be the only issues the Republicans can claim to have any sort of even equal footing with Democrats. When she gets in the debate with Joe Biden, it will border on comical when they have to discuss these issues.

I think a big part of McCain making this decision was to obviously try and scoop up disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters. Well, I can't help but feel that is somewhat of a pipe dream given the wide disparity between the ultra-conservative Palin and Clinton. In Hillary's Tuesday speech, she openly asked her supporters if "they were in it just for me?" She then went on to explain that the best chance those supporters had to realize their dreams was to vote for Barack Obama, because John McCain would not be able to deliver in the same way. While some may be attracted first to this idea of a woman on the ticket, once those former Clinton supporters look into Palin's record they will almost certainly dislike what they see. Politico's Ben Smith just reported on MSNBC that Palin does not support abortion rights for rape victims, which puts her far, far to the right of even John McCain. In the end, I don't see the attempt to attract these women just because there's a woman on the ticket working.

Regardless, having Palin on the ticket was a bold, inspiring move for a party that really needed a shot of life. Obama's speech last night riled up his base and I can't wait to see where he and Biden take their campaign next.

As Tim Russert would say, what a country.

Biden, The DNC and more

I'm sure many of you were wondering where I was when Barack Obama texted and e-mailed the world that he'd selected Delaware Senator Joe Biden to be his running mate. Well, I was in New Jersey for a long weekend of baseball and music. It's now Tuesday so I doubt you need me to really break the Biden news to you. I actually had it on good information that Biden was going to be the pick roughly 24 hours before the announcement was made. I have sources, but like any good journalist, I won't disclose them.

A few weeks back I extolled the virtues of Evan Bayh as Obama's veep choice. A few things happened between then and the weeklong vacation in Hawaii where Obama apparently made up his mind on picking Biden. First off, the conflict between Russia and Georgia made it apparent Obama needed someone with real foreign policy chops to make the American public confident in the Democratic ticket's ability to deal with such issues. There's no better foreign policy voice in the Democratic Party than Biden. Second, there were some rumblings in the press about Bayh's wife having ties to the boards of several large corporations at a time in which large corporations aren't exactly popular. Finally, and maybe most importantly, John McCain has closed a significant gap in national polling based on junkyard dog-style campaigning against Obama. In choosing Biden, Obama decided he needed to fight fire with fire and someone as even-keel as Bayh just wouldn't work.

So the pick is Biden, and he wasted no time on Saturday at his joint appearance with Obama, immediately bashing McCain as offering a third Bush term. This is what I like about Biden, and what I've always liked about him as long as I've been following politics. He's one of the few people in the Democratic Party that could be put in this position and show just as much balls on the Senate floor as he will on the campaign trail. Biden is impassioned about Democratic politics, about his beloved home state of Delaware, about serving and protecting the United States, and his incredible resume speaks volumes about his ability to bring about the change Obama desperately wants. I do feel in many ways the Biden pick is something of a lifetime achievement award for a man who has worked so tirelessly for so many years.

I can't wait for the VP debate on October 2, especially since Biden will almost certainly eviscerate either the bumbling Mitt Romney or the unknown Tim Pawlenty.

Alright, so the glorious week known as the Democratic National Convention began last night. I was still in transit from NJ when much of the action was going on, but I got a chance to see replays of the two big moments of the night. First, Ted Kennedy gave an inspiring, rousing address to the convention that defied his harrowing condition. Then, Michelle Obama assuaged any fears about her readiness to be First Lady by giving a beautiful speech about the difficulties of growing up in Chicago and becoming successful through hard work and determination. I came away from the speech so excited about the possibility of watching her be First Lady for four years. She may be the first First Lady of my lifetime that I've actually liked.

Tonight Mark Warner will deliver the Keynote Address and then Hillary Clinton will again try to unite the party by headlining the night. I am very anxious to see what she says.

That's all for now. I will be returning to school on Sunday so there will definitely be more frequent posts here going forward.

Veepstakes Fever

I'll skip apologizing for not updating this pretty much at all this summer and get right to the point. By the end of this week, both Barack Obama and John McCain could officially announce their choices to be #2 on their respective tickets. With neither candidate willing to take attention away from the Olympics (which start August 8), the time appears to be now for them to make their choices known. Speculation is running rampant right now all over the Beltway and the Blogosphere about who they might be.

A front page story ran in today's Washington Post about the narrowing shortlist for Obama. The article seemed to whittle the list down to four serious contenders: Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, Delaware Senator Joe Biden, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. The latter appears to be the front-runner according to sources close to the vetting committee headed by Eric Holder. Some long shots include former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, current senators Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, Jack Reed, and Republican Chuck Hagel.

This isn't really news if you've been following the Veepstakes like I have. The top four have been mentioned consistently as possibilities ever since Obama secured the nomination last month. And those four occupied the first, second, third and fifth spots on Chris Cillizza's most recent Friday Veepstakes Line (with Reed coming in fourth). What seems to be the most important piece of news is that Kaine is in "serious talks" to become the vice presidential choice of the Democratic Party. For his part, Kaine earlier today denied being seriously involved in the veep process.

For the last few weeks, I have been of the strong belief the perfect veep choice for Obama would be Bayh, the centrist Democrat from a really important battleground state. Unlike all the others being considered for the #2 slot, Bayh not only has a decade of Senate experience but spent eight years prior to that as Indiana's governor. He doesn't rock the boat, he doesn't say stupid things, and he's just boring enough to not cost Obama anything in November.

Bayh was a longtime Clinton supporter during primaries (and some comments he made during that time could come back to haunt both Bayh and Obama if he's the choice) but this pick could be seen as an attempt to bridge the gap between the two wings of the party. His appeal will play well in his native Midwest, the all-important battleground which could swing the election.

From an aesthetic level, Bayh is 52 but looks much younger, and Cillizza and others have mentioned a striking similarity between a potential Obama-Bayh ticket to the youthful 1992 Democratic combo of Bill Clinton and Al Gore.

There are some drawbacks, including Bayh's very vanilla public persona, his lack of a major track record as leading on any issues in the Senate, or how the pick could alienate the more liberal wing of the party. However, I personally feel Bayh is the right choice for Obama if he wants to win in November and take the country in the right direction once he is elected.

McCain's short list appears to be down to three serious contenders: former Massachusetts Governor and current Fascist Mitt Romney, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and former Ohio Congressman Rob Portman. If you have no idea who Rob Portman is, check out Cillizza's breakdown of the case for Portman in today's Fix. To sum it up briefly, Portman is a real party insider and someone those inside the Beltway view as a tremendous rising political star in Washington. On the negative side, I'm sure everyone reading this probably had to click on that link because no one knows who he is and he's best described as a Bushite, which I doubt McCain really wants on his ticket.

So it's between Romney and Pawlenty. If it's between those two, I don't see how he doesn't pick Pawlenty. He's young (47), the governor of a battleground state, has a progressive track record of sound economic change in his home state. After their bitter primary battle, it seems so shocking to me that Romney is being considered. I mean, it seemed like in those debates McCain was just about ready to beat him senseless every time Mitt opened his mouth. So while I think McCain should pick Pawlenty, I'm beginning to think McCain will actually pick Romney solely based on his perceived economic prowess. Of course, we all know Romney's pitfalls, in particular that he's a total phony and a bumbling moron in the public sphere.

If McCain picks Romney, Obama might as well start preparing his inauguration speech now. Evangelicals and moderate Republicans could abandon the GOP by either voting for Obama or staying home on Election Day. And it would feed into the perception that McCain is only going to be in it for one term given Romney's clear ambition to be president as soon as 2012. So as you can see, I'm really hoping McCain picks Romney.

So those are my feelings for the time being. I'll be sure to check back in after the picks are officially announced, whether that's sooner or later.

Obama's Inspiring Ride

The final words of Barack Obama's second book, The Audacity of Hope, describe in one sentence his feelings about the nation that allowed him--as a self-described "skinny kid with a funny name" and product of mixed marriage--to rise up and become a successful political figure. The nine words Obama uses to complete the book that helped launch him onto the national scene must have been paraphrased by many this past week.

"My heart is filled with love for this country."

On Tuesday night, Obama's primary campaign came to a victorious end, securing the requisite number of delegates to claim the Democratic Party nomination, as he did that night in this speech. Not only was his victory speech rousing, inspiring, and spectacularly-crafted, but the sense of history could not be avoided. Here was an African-American man, claiming for all to see that he would be the one, with all the negativity and dismay toward the eight years of the other party's disastrous rule, to take on the destructive nature of the past and push America towards a more promising future.

So many never believed they'd see the day when a person of color would be a major party nominee for the nation's highest office. For the people who lived through the Civil Rights movement in the 1950s and 1960s, for the people who watched police savage the Selma marchers, for the people who saw the promise of the Kennedys and Dr. King taken away forever by the assassin's bullet, the coronation of Barack Obama as the standard bearer of the Democratic Party must have been a sight to behold, regardless of their political persuasion.

We have come to believe in recent years that our political process has become beholden to special interests and shady back room dealings. Only those with money and name recognition can reach the highest levels of government, and when they get there, they don't bother to look after the people who really need the help. They look after the moneyed interests that helped them get elected. What is left behind is an electorate that doesn't trust their leaders, and doesn't expect very much from the in return.

Barack Obama has showed that real grassroots support and an outsider's attitude can help get one to the highest levels of government without needing lobbyists and serious moneyed interests to get there. Obama went up against the most powerful brand name in American Democratic politics, and he beat them. Hillary Clinton ran a spirited but deeply flawed campaign, and in the end she was taken down by Obama's superior organization and the groundswell created by his message of hope, change, and unity amongst all Americans. I've heard Obama's nomination victory over Clinton called the greatest upset in American political history this week (I think James K. Polk would beg to differ), and maybe they're right. All I know is that Obama ran the best political campaign I've ever seen and edged Clinton for the nomination because that's what he had to do to win.

I grew up always believing that anybody in America could become President of the United States. I had lost that faith over the years, but this past week has restored that faith. 50 years after black people had difficulty getting voting rights in the South, while Jim Crow laws still ruled the day and brutal crimes against blacks went largely unpunished, a black man is now the favorite to become president during this turbulent time. Obama is proving that anything can happen in this country, where a man with Obama's skin hue and background can become the leader of the free world. He is the best our country has to offer, and that makes me so very proud to live in this amazing nation.

Like Barack Obama, my heart is filled with love for this country.

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A few "houskeeping" items before I go, as Professor Dante Scala would say:

I had been working hard on a Veepstakes post but the work on that has come to a screeching halt as the nomination race concluded so decisively this past week. I'm going to start up working on it again this week and I'd like to have at least the Democratic side posted by next Sunday. I'm trying to be very thorough with my evaluations of each potential candidate, and I'm trying to get through everybody and not just a Top 5 or Top 10. Chris Cilliza is doing some work on this, check out the link for his blog "The Fix" on the right sidebar.

Also, because I'm back home in Bartlett and dealing once again with the barbarism that is dial-up Internet, I'm not going to be on AIM very much except for when I'm at my mother's house. I will try to update both of my blogs as much as I can for the rest of the summer, and I would suggest to those who read my blogs to bookmark them and check frequently if I'm not online. That's the best way to get your Musings/Baseball fix.

I'll leave you with a hilarious link to a website called Things Younger Than John McCain, updated daily with items that are younger than the man hoping to be the oldest President in history. High comedy.

Later.

So Close to the End

I would have written about the events of this week sooner, but I just recently got back to my room after several days walking on clouds. Our long national nightmare is about to come to an end. The split that many (including myself) predicted for the May 6 primaries came true, but not in the expected fashion. Barack Obama blew out the North Carolina primary by about 220,000 votes while Hillary Clinton won the Indiana contest by only 15,000, essentially a draw in a contest with over 1.2 million votes. Obama's performances came off a week where his ex-pastor stole most of the headlines, his opposition tried to paint him as an elitist that couldn't gain the support of working families, and his rival tried touting a pandering, irresponsible plan to suspend gas taxes for the summer.

It didn't work. Voters turned off the Clinton spin machine and turned on to the man who will be the Democratic nominee. And I know that Obama will be the nominee because Tim Russert told me so. That particular clip has gotten a lot of play online these last few days, and I was watching him live when he said it. That was the first time I really thought to myself, "Wow, this is finally going to end soon, maybe tomorrow." Obama and his message were able to overcome all the extraneous BS, and voters want this process to end.

Well, as we know, Clinton hasn't stopped, and she has continued campaigning hard in the upcoming states of West Virginia (primary next Tuesday), Oregon and Kentucky (primaries May 20). Instead of running a clean, valedictory campaign, Clinton and her lackeys have continued bitching about Michigan and Florida, playing the race card, and even making ridiculous claims about counting Puerto Rico in the even more ridiculous popular vote metric. At first I thought this was because she badly wants to make something out of her failed campaign and lobby for a spot on the ticket. But after making comments in Oregon today criticizing Obama's health care plan as if this was January, I'm really at a loss for what she's going for.

She now has to gain around 70 percent of all remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 2,025. There's only six contests left, and the most delegates at stake in any of them is 55. It's stupid to assume that when the DNC decides the fate of the Florida and Michigan delegates May 31 they're going to assign those delegates based solely on the votes of those illegal contests. Since Tuesday, Obama has picked up 13 superdelegate endorsements while Clinton has a net gain of 0 (two new endorsements and two defections to Obama). According to our friends at 2008 Democratic Convention Watch, Obama only needs 1.5 more superdelegate endorsements to finally overtake Clinton's once vast lead. Even Rahm Emanuel, the 4th-ranking Democrat in the House and one of Bill Clinton's closest advisers during his presidency, when the Russert route today and called Obama "the presumptive nominee." I'll say that Clinton has every right to stay in this race until someone hits 2,025, or more realistically, the 1,627 majority in pledged delegates that Obama should clinch with a win in Oregon (it's being suggested he will declare victory that night). Clinton is assured to win in WV and KY but there won't be enough delegates to catch up after 5/20.

So I'm still at a loss about what all this means. Besides it being her general right to stay in the race until Obama gets certain majorities, she's definitely doing more damage than good by staying in and raising consistent concerns about his electablity, especially when she disgustingly suggests Obama can't win "white voters." There's no reason to believe that she'll go back on her word of offering 100% support to whomever the Democratic nominee is. When she's in that position this summer and fall, she's going to be the one to try and convince "white voters" to come over to Obama. I wish that was the approach she was taking. Instead she's continuing to try and splinter the party and hurt everyone in the process. If her campaign tries to say that winning most of WV's whopping 28 delegates is a game-changer, then I don't think I'm going to take anything they say seriously until she says the words "Barack Obama will be our next president."

The fighting has already begun between Obama and John McCain, an awesome battle that I'm ready to observe with the greatest of fervor for the next five months. Obama gave a speech today where he never once mentioned Clinton and pointed all his verbal missiles at the man from Arizona. I don't know that we've ever had a campaign where the two major candidates were so different in so many respects. A brash upstart versus the (literally) old guard, a 25-year age discrepancy, and almost entirely different ideas about where the country should go. It goes without saying that the 2008 general election should be an epic battle. Of course, all Obama has to ask people is whether or not they want a third Bush term, because that's what they'd get with McCain. Maybe it won't be so close in the end.

Have a good weekend.